RESEARCH REPORT
Resilience in flight
Securing future growth for commercial aerospace amid volatility
5-MINUTE READ
October 13, 2025
In brief
- Global commercial aerospace is set to enter 2026 strong, fuelled by a 25% rise in aircraft deliveries and sustained aftermarket demand in 2025.
- Executives are bullish on revenue growth: 54% expect revenue growth in six months and 92% in the next 2 years.
- Supply chain sentiment is up, with 92% of executives confident in 12-month delivery targets, but tariffs and geopolitical issues still worry them.
12%
Global commercial aerospace revenue (YoY) growth
17%
Revenue growth in North America, a two-decade high
1,390
2025 Aircraft deliveries
Strong growth momentum in commercial aerospace despite supply chain strains
Global commercial aerospace is on track for a 12% revenue increase, positioning the industry to enter 2026 on a strong footing. The projected 25% rise in aircraft deliveries and sustained aftermarket demand are powering this rebound.
North America is set to record its strongest revenue growth in two decades, with revenue forecast to climb 17% on the back of Boeing’s rebound. Asia-Pacific will likely expand by around 10%, supported by strong passenger traffic and investment in maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO). Europe, meanwhile, could hold steady at 6% growth on account of Airbus’s delivery plans.
Executive confidence is strong
91%
of executives expect narrowbody deliveries to match or surpass last year’s levels
97%
of executives expect widebody deliveries to match or surpass last year’s levels
Labor and supply shortages strain the aftermarket
Executives expect MRO demand to mount over the next two years, with spending projected to increase 14% YoY in 2025. While this supports growth, it also adds pressure to an already constrained system. Despite strong aftermarket revenue growth—Rolls-Royce up 28% in 1H25 and GE Aerospace up 23%—capacity remains constrained. Persistent delivery delays are forcing airlines to extend fleet lives from 13 to 15 years, driving MRO demand higher. With a record backlog of 17,000 jets, labor shortages and parts scarcity are compounding turnaround times.
To bridge the gap, MRO service providers are investing in workforce training, digital tools and supplier partnerships. AI-driven automation and engine exchange programs are also emerging as critical levers of operational resilience.
57%
of executives expect MRO spending to rise in 12 months
77%
of executives expect MRO spending to rise in 24 months
Supply chain resilience amid shifting trade dynamics
Executives remain cautious about macroeconomic headwinds, with political instability and trade protectionism now viewed as top risks. Aerospace supply chains remain fragile as tariffs, raw material inflation and geopolitical tensions reshape sourcing strategies. Titanium costs have risen 90% since 2022, inflating production expenses. Meanwhile, new US tariffs on Indian aerospace exports could cause further disruption to the industry’s globally distributed supply chains.
Yet confidence is steadily improving
92%
of executives now expect suppliers to meet or exceed delivery expectations within 12 months, up from 88% six months ago
This reflects progress in OEM–supplier collaboration and digital adoption. At the same time, companies are establishing regional manufacturing hubs, deepening partnerships and deploying AI forecasting and digital twins to absorb shocks more effectively.
From agility to resilience
How aerospace companies are reinventing supply chains
Short / mid-term solution
Driving agility in the supply chain
Executives are moving from immediate stabilization to mid-term stability—shifting their focus from real-time visibility, pricing agility and close supplier coordination in the short term to building flexibility through diversification, regional hubs and inventory buffers in the medium term.
This marks a deliberate transition from firefighting disruptions to embedding agility at the core of the supply chain.
Long-term strategy (2+ years)
Building structural resilience
In the long term, executives are focused on embedding structural resilience into the very design of their supply chains. This means deploying digital twins and AI to enable predictive visibility and adaptability, while deliberately creating geographically distributed networks that can flex and withstand shocks. Equally important, they are forging long-term, co-innovative partnerships with suppliers, shifting from transactional relationships to collaborative ecosystems that make resilience a shared capability.
The strategic shift is clear: resilience is no longer about short-term fixes but about redesigning global supply chains for flexibility and long-term stability.
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